Last Minute Predictions

November 4, 2008 at 6:15 pm (Commentary, Polls) (, , , )

With the first set of polls closing, I want to take one final look at the Electoral Map and make final predictions before states are called at 7PM EST. So, let’s take a look at our final states and make some final calls on these remaining states.

Arizona (10)
Florida (27)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (11)
Montana (11)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Ohio (20)
Virginia (13)

These are the final states that I’ve designated as the states that will change the course of this election. Now, even though I’ve called it for Senator Obama, anything could happen in the final hours and every state will count! Now, the states are going to break down like this for each candidate:

Senator Obama:

Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

Senator McCain:

Arizona
Indiana
Missouri
Montana
North Dakota

This would give Senator Obama the following states:

California (55)
Colorado (9)
Conneticut (7)
District of Colombia (3)
Delaware (3)
Florida (27)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Iowa (7)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (10)
Nevada (5)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (15)
New Mexico (5)
New York (31)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio: (20)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Virginia (13)
Washington (11)
Wisconsin (11)

Meanwhile, we’ve given Senator McCain the following states:

Arkansas (3)
Alaska (9)
Arizona (10)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (11)
Montana (11)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

That would bring the Electoral College count to:

Senator Obama: 353 Electoral Votes
Senator McCain: 187 Electoral Votes

Of course, anything could honestly happen, but based off of polling, traditional voting, and turn out to this point, this is what it is looking at. We’ll be updating all of this as the evening goes, bringing you the latest information as we get it. I’m also going to predict a percentage for the popular vote:

Senator Obama: 52%
Senator McCain: 47%

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A Long Look at Governor Sarah Palin

November 3, 2008 at 1:19 am (Commentary) (, , , , , )

For a long while now, my thoughts on Governor Palin have been pooling inside of my head. For two months now, we’ve seen her name in the press on a daily basis, heard her stump speeches and interviews, and have been able to form a rather well-rounded opinion of the Governor from Alaska. The day she was nominated I remember sitting in my house and just staring at the screen in disgust.

Was this the person that Senator McCain really thought would make a good running mate?

Read the rest of this entry »

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Looking Further into the Ashley Todd Story

October 24, 2008 at 6:44 pm (Commentary) (, , )

So, rumors are flying left and right about Ashley Todd’s involvement with the McCain campaign. Earlier today, it was revealed that Ashley Todd would be facing charges for filing a False Police report after confessing that she lied about being attacked by a man after seeing a McCain bumper sticker on her. The troubling news coming out right now though is the fact that apparently, McCain’s Pennsylvania communications director was giving out a rather incendiary version of the story to reporters, even going as far as saying that the B in Todd’s face stood for Barack. Here’s a snipped from the Talking Points Memo website:

“John McCain’s Pennsylvania communications director told reporters in the state an incendiary version of the hoax story about the attack on a McCain volunteer well before the facts of the case were known or established — and even told reporters outright that the “B” carved into the victim’s cheek stood for “Barack,” according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions.

John Verrilli, the news director for KDKA in Pittsburgh, told TPM Election Central that McCain’s Pennsylvania campaign communications director gave one of his reporters a detailed version of the attack that included a claim that the alleged attacker said, “You’re with the McCain campaign? I’m going to teach you a lesson.”"

Other tidbits that have started to trickle in are that Ashley Todd is apparently working with the College Republican National Committee, a group that previously included Karl Rove and various members of McCain’s campaign advisers. There have also been a few unconfirmed reports that Todd might have contacted the McCain campaign before calling the police. There are people wondering whether or not the McCain campaign was involved with this at all, maybe even planning the “attack”

My thoughts?

I highly doubt that the McCain campaign had anything to do with this. Especially not any of his inner circle. Now, maybe a low-level person? Sure, why not. That’s possible, especially with the election cycle going as it is for Senator McCain. Somebody who thought they could harm the Obama campaign and continue to flame the racial tensions that people have been noticing throughout this election cycle. Ultimately, it’s just purely disgusting whether or not the McCain campaign had a hand in all of this. She obviously went into this hoping to sway voters from Senator Obama, as highlighted by Fox News’ John Moody.

“If Ms. Todd’s allegations are proven accurate, some voters may revisit their support for Senator Obama, not because they are racists (with due respect to Rep. John Murtha), but because they suddenly feel they do not know enough about the Democratic nominee.”

Which is absolutely disgusting. First off, people as a whole immediately went into this story and when they heard a “B” was carved into her cheek, instantly thought about Barack Obama. That’s truly something else and just goes to show how ignorant people as a whole are. Sorry, but it’s the truth. Senator Obama had nothing to do with this. People will point out that he said “Argue with them. Get into their faces” but he never wanted this. He isn’t telling people to resort to violence. Instead, he’s talking about change; change in America. I saw people attacking Senator Obama for this and it just sickened me. It made me wonder “Can you really be that dense?”

A rather sad affair and one that we’ll continue to read about over the next 24-48 hours, but it just goes to show that people are going to go to extreme lengths so that their candidate can win. We’ve seen it with painting Senator Obama with William Ayers and now this. Let the policies win out, not the slaner.

I’m sure this won’t be my last post on this subject.

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Woman Lied About Being Attacked, Carved B into Own Face

October 24, 2008 at 2:54 pm (Commentary) (, , , , )

Last night, I posted an entry talking about how split this country is when it comes to race and economic status, and it’s effect on the Presidential Race. One of the reasons that entry was made was due to a news story that CNN had posted about a woman in Pittsburgh being attacked at an ATM and then having a B carved into her face after a black man saw a John McCain bumper sticker on her car. Now, it’s come out that the woman has lied, according to Talking Points Memo and KDKA in Pittsburgh. This is what they said:

“Police say a campaign volunteer confessed to making up a story that a mugger attacked her and cut the letter B in her face after seeing her McCain bumper sticker.”

Is this what we’ve boiled down to as Americans? Completely lying to a police officer to attack a presidential candidate? I thought we as a country were better then this, but now I see something like this. This woman is facing charges of filing a false police report. The sad part is that so many people have more than likely heard this story already, and won’t hear the aftermath of it not being true. A comment earlier on this blog asked if I was at all worried about violence on election day, and honestly, I am. It’s becoming increasingly clear that this is going to be a very hate-filled week and a half before people head to the polls to vote. If I wear a John McCain or Barack Obama shirt, am I really safe going into that polling booth?

People everywhere need to look at themselves in the mirror and calm down. We’re better then this. We don’t need to attack each other. Over the next eleven days, we’re going to continue to see news stories just like that. I’m sure that on November 4th, we’ll hear of several attacks against people either supporting Obama or McCain. I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear of a bombing at a polling precinct because of the lines that have been drawn into the sand.

Reading this story, I felt disappointed. Disappointed that things had gone down this road. Let’s respect each other people.

Please.

Updated: CNN has picked up the story as well

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Analyzing the Election on a Different Level…

October 23, 2008 at 11:36 pm (Commentary) (, , , , )

One of the main purposes of this blog is to go past the numbers and generic news that’s seen on a daily basis through this election cycle. Instead, it’s to delve deeper into the issues at hand. Earlier, we looked at the new Republican strategy of attacking Barack Obama and Democrats by saying they we’d basically be handing them a blank check, and admitting defeat in the Presidential race. There are some serious issues here that will play out through Election Day and past that. One of the most prime examples of this is racism and the terrible division that this country is seeing currently.

It was only seven years ago that this nation came together for a national tragedy. Once again, the nation is going through another tragedy, and instead of coming together we’re at each other’s throats. We’re in the midst of one of the most strained elections of our time and we’ll be damned if we’re just going to all be buddy buddy. Instead, politics have started to play a role in our everyday lives as the stock market continues to tank. There’s a very much pro-Barack Obama fan base and a very much pro-John McCain fan base. Never before have I seen such heated debates or discussions taking place during a Presidential race. Families are literally split down the middle because of their political affiliation. We’re in a state of Change vs. Slow and Steady. So many Americans under the age of thirty are pro-Obama while the older people, people who feel like they need an experienced and wise leader are siding with McCain. 

Where did all of this come from? CNN is reporting that a woman in Pittsburgh was attacked, and then cut a “B” into her face after realizing she had a John McCain bumper sticker on her car. The man is believed to be African-American and there’s no telling the reasoning behind this attack. However, the deeper question here is “What’s going to happen on November 4th?” For some African-Americans out there, this is a chance to get back at white people everywhere for being held back and down, or for getting back at the “man”. Then, there will be those who vote McCain only because of racism and their belief that a black man should never become President, much else something of power and substance. 

So, I’ll leave you with this, as this is a topic we’ll easily go over again in the upcoming days. What’s going to happen on November 4th if Barack Obama is elected President? There are those who fear that he’ll be assassinated; that riots will break out from African-Americans celebrating. What’s going to happen on November 4th if John McCain is elected President? There will be many African-Americans disenfranchised with the entire process. Angers will flare and it’s going to become a dangerous scene out there.

I just hope I’m wrong.

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A Look at the Polls – October 23rd

October 23, 2008 at 8:54 pm (Commentary, Polls) (, , , , , , , , )

Today, I’m going to bring you some polling information on a national level as well as on a state level. I should warn you now though, the numbers just don’t look good for Senator McCain, but let’s break it down and then take a look at the most recent electoral map. 

National Numbers

Gallup Poll: Senator Obama – 50% / Senator McCain – 43% (Registered Voters)

Gallup is showing that Senator Obama is currently holding onto a 7% lead over Senator McCain with registered voters. Technically, McCain has made a slight increase, going from 42% to 43% while Obama has dropped from 51% to 50%. However, these polls continue to fluctuate on a daily basis, but most importantly they’re staying within the same range. When it breaks down to likely voters, 50% of them are more than likely going to vote for Senator Obama while 46% are supporting Senator McCain. 

 

Showing the trend patterns from the Gallup Poll

Showing the trend patterns from the Gallup Poll

 

CNN Poll of Polls: Senator Obama – 50% / Senator McCain – 42%

The CNN Poll of Polls takes a variety of polls and mashes them together to kind of create a consensus between several different polls. These polls include Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby, Diageo/Hotline, Gallup, and Fox/Opinion Dynamics. Compared to the previous day, Senator Obama has increased his lead by one percentage point. Once again, the CNN Poll of Polls have remained in a standard area of around 7 to 9 percentage points. The fact that Senator McCain is down so far within these samples of people and simply not budging isn’t get a good sign.

What does it mean?

Absoultely nothing. Polls are just polls. They don’t indicate what will happen, but what could happen. This is something I more than likely will hard upon as we lead into November 4th. So, go out and vote. Early vote, send in your absentee ballot, or get ready to stand in line on November 4th. If you’re a McCain supporter, anything can happen on Election Day. Same goes for a Obama supporter.

State Numbers

CNN released the numbers of their most recent Poll of Polls for the following states: Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and West Virginia. Out of those six states, Obama is leading in five of them while McCain holds onto a narrow lead in one of the states. Here’s how the numbers break down.

Pennsylvania: Senator Obama – 51% / Senator McCain – 41%
Virginia: Senator Obama – 51% / Senator McCain – 43%
Ohio: Senator Obama – 50% / Senator McCain – 43%
Nevada: Senator Obama – 49% / Senator McCain – 45%
Florida: Senator Obama – 48% / Senator McCain – 45%
West Virginia: Senator McCain – 47% / Senator Obama – 45%

Trending goes a little something like this. In Pennsylvania, Obama’s lead has gone from thirteen percent to ten percent since October 16th. Senator Obama though has increased his lead in Virginia, going from a four percent lead to an eight percent one. He has also done the same in Ohio as he’s gone from 3 points to 7 points since October 20th. In Nevada and Florida, Obama has gone done two points in Nevada and has stayed exactly the same in Florida. The West Virginia poll was the first of it’s kind for the state. 

What does it mean?

Senator McCain is losing states he desperately needs. Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. Many have called for him to drop out of Pennsylvania much like he did in Michigan, but the McCain camp continues to spend money there. Nevada and Florida are within reach and he might be better off focusing his energies there.

Other Numbers of Notes

- Gallup has found that 13% of registered voters will vote for President for the first time in their lifetime this year. This is the same percentage from four years prior. 

- Jewish voters are strongly behind Senator Obama, with 74% of them supporting him while 22% support Senator McCain. 

- Senator Obama currently leads in all age categories.

Electoral Map

It’s a little difficult to find a good map to post on here as CNN and Real Clear Politics, the sites I’m using today to show where the Electoral College would fall based off of polls if the election was held today. We’ll go ahead and break it down per each Electoral Map.

Real Clear Politics

Senator Obama/Biden: 306 Electoral Votes
- 259 Solid / 47 Leaning

Senator McCain/Governor Palin: 157 Electoral Votes
- 137 Solid / 20 Leaning

Tossup: 75 Electoral Votes

The states that are considered to be too close to call right now are: Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Nevada. In Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and Missouri, Senator Obama is leading while Senator McCain leads in Indiana and Montana. All of that is moot though as Senator Obama would win with 306 Electoral Votes.

CNN Politics

Senator Obama/Biden: 277 Electoral Votes
- 192 Solid / 85 Leaning

Senator McCain/Governor Palin: 174 Electoral Votes
- 122 Solid / 52 Leaning

Tossup: 87 Electoral Votes

The tossup states according to CNN are: Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida. Four of those states are those in common with the Real Clear Politics poll; Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida. Those are the states that we’ll more than likely see the most money poured into and will be the most closely analyzed to see which side they fall on on the fence. Once again though, we would see Senator Obama winning the election with 277 electoral votes, even if Senator McCain won all of the tossup states.

What does all of this mean?

We’re seeing Obama control states that are typically Democratic. The Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and the West are strongly in his grasp and he’s not going to lose those votes. States that are leaning towards Obama are states that tend to vote for Democrats with exception to Virginia. McCain is trying to make grabs at some of those states, with Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Washington being the primary focus of those states. The states that McCain has control of are Republican strongholds; the South, the mountain West, and the Midwest. The states that are leaning McCain are a little more in trouble then the ones leaning towards Obama because normally Republicans have control of the Sunbelt, ala Georgia, Louisiana, and Arkansas. However, those three states could have a high African-American turnout that tips the balance even further into Senator Obama’s favor.

Tomorrow, we’re going to take a look at the states that are leaning and the tossup states to see how close things are and hopefully paint a clearer picture. Over the weekend, we’ll take a look at the Senatorial races that could have an effect on the Presidential race and the gender/race make-up of these states to try and predict where each state will fall.

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Looking at the new Republican Strategy

October 23, 2008 at 12:31 pm (Commentary) (, , , , )

Recently, an ad has appeared from the National Republican Senatorial Committee trying to convince voters that Barack Obama is about to become President? Wait, say whuh?! The Republicans are right now bracing for Barack Obama to become President and hope to put that fear into the hearts of voter’s everywhere at a time when it seems like the Democrats are going to take the White House and take a controlling majority of the Senate, giving essentially a carte blance blank check to the Democratic Party. 

“These liberals want complete control of government in a time of crisis. No checks and balances. No debate. No independence,” the ad says. “That’s the truth behind Kay Hagan. If she wins they get a blank check.”

Those words come from Senator Elizabeth Dole who is locked into a heated battle for Senate seat with Kay Hagan as the strategy has now turned to pure scare tactics. A strategy that frankly hasn’t worked out too well for the McCain campaign during his tussle with Senator Obama. For a while, Republicans were trying to paint the current Democratic Senate as being ineffective over the past two years. However, people everywhere have started to scoff at that notion even as approval ratings for the Senate is at an all time high. The truth is that the Democrats gained a slight advantage over the Republicans in the 2006 election, but not enough to have a controlling amount that basically would help pass through Democratic initatives. Part of the reason why the Senate hasn’t acheived anything substantial over the past two years is because of the partisan politics that have basically deadlocked the Senate. 

The Democrats are as much to blame for that as the Republicans.

Instead of attacking them on the policies, something that a majority of Americans have decided to side with the Democrats on, they’re attacking them on pure fear. Trying to strike fear into the hearts of Americans everywhere and it’s just plain wrong. These days, Americans are scared more than ever because of the crashing economy and the impending sense of doom that’s being floated around on a daily basis. The Republicans are preying on that fear and it seems like one that might end up backfiring on them. There are eleven races that they’re highlighting on this particular ad.

  • Alaska
  • Colorado
  • Georgia
  • Kentucky
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi 
  • New Hampshire
  • New Mexico
  • North Carolina
  • Oregon
  • Virginia
Is it going to work? That remains to be seen. Obviously, the Republicans aren’t going to highlight the fact that even a 60-seat majority for the Democrats doesn’t ensure that they’re going to vote party line. It’s actually a problem Democrats have had in the past. Polls over the next couple weeks are going to be interesting to watch to see if this line, especially with Republicans almost admitting defeat on the Presidential race, will have any effect on voters.
 
Haven’t seen the video yet? Here you go.

 

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